Theory of Change: What is it and How to Develop it

Just like a motor vehicle will not exist without ‘proven’ scientific theories, your programme impacts can remain elusive without a ‘theory of change’ (ToC). Let’s understand from a simple example from the nutrition sector. How would you reduce anaemia among Pregnant Women (PW)? The most common answer would be ‘adequate intake of iron and folic acid (IFA) tablets during adolescence and pregnancy’. But, what about the causal ‘package’ that must exist to ensure this? What about inadequate wages of front-line workers who are at the forefront of delivering IFA tablets, inadequate knowledge amongst PW,  or social norms that discourage IFA consumption?

How Theory of Change helps with Delivery

ToC helps you design a ‘story of change’ which guides how an impact would be delivered. Take the example of our simple story of reducing anaemia (see Figure 1).

ToC first identifies the ultimate goal (reducing anemia) and works backward to establish preconditions (increasing wages or improving the delivery of tablets or improving education for women) to reach that goal. At each step, key assumptions or dependencies are clearly identified (see green rectangles in the figure). Explicitly open the ‘black boxes’ in your thinking. Try thinking statements like “if X happens, then Y happens, because…”. And, finally, recognize that yours may be just one approach to reach the goal of reduced anaemia and your ToC can demonstrate multiple pathways to reach the goal.

Figure 1: Theory of Change

TOC should ideally begin with a situation analysis, needs assessment– to lay out the ‘gap’ between the current and the desired situation, followed by a ‘backward mapping’ of intermediate outcomes and inputs along with explicitly stated assumptions and ‘evidence’ of why those assumptions are sound. Developing TOC does not require specialist research skills, but only willingness to ask the right questions and answering them honestly.

5 Key questions for Theory of Change

The five questions in the figure below will get you started. But, don’t let these questions box you in developing an unviable theory of change. You should ask the following questions to assess the TOC’s viability:

• Do evidence and common sense suggest that activities – if implemented -will lead to desired outcomes? If not, are you over-promising the outcomes?
• Are the economic, technical, political, institutional, and human resources available adequately to carry out the initiative? If not, does your TOC clearly identify what you cannot do and how it can affect the outcomes?
• Is the theory of change specific and complete enough for evaluators and implementers to assess whether you are doing the thing right (as planned), and identify failures before they happen?
  
  

  Figure 2: Key questions for Theory of Change

Key Pointers

• ToC is a ‘story of change’ and you can tell this story in any format you like. You can either use feedback loops, flowchart, mind-maps, tabular frameworks (like logframe), or be creative as long as implementers, funders, and evaluators understand what it is.
• Developing TOC is an enriching process for funders and implementers at the design or planning stage (a good evaluator can make it even more useful). It will help you appreciate complexities, risks, and resources needed to address challenges much better.
• TOC will guide not only your implementation but also monitoring, evaluation, and learning efforts. You can always revise the TOC based on learnings but not having one at the start of the programme should not be an option.

Remember, the sooner an evaluation is integrated with your programme, larger is the value of such evaluation to your programme. Don’t wait to hire an evaluator, take the first step by drafting your ToC. Check our website for free resources to help you get started. You can also schedule a micro-consulting with us if you have questions which Google or our website cannot answer.

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